Browse sourced findings, connection research, and open questions. Each entry retains the status and qualifications recorded with the research. A connection research note is not automatically a verified network-map relationship.
Connection research · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: STRONG CROSS-NETWORK POLICY SORTING: independent-expenditure records and contemporaneous reporting document opposite PAC support on the same HB93 fault line. No common coordination or motive is inferred.
The 2026 school-choice fights provide unusually clean evidence that outside money was not uniformly pushing one direction; competing outside-funded networks backed opposite sides of a specific Idaho GOP-platform issue. Idaho Education News reported that Citizens Alliance PAC, an Idaho PAC funded by a $450,000 contribution from a Virginia-based Citizens Alliance super PAC, spent $135,291 by April 9 to support 15 Republican legislative candidates. Every incu…
Read note and sources →Connection research · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: STRONG POLICY/STRATEGY ALIGNMENT, NO DIRECT FUNDING FOUND: official GOP criticism and issue-level divergences are documented; Dixon/Common Ground open-primary advocacy aligns with Unite America's stated reform agenda. Funding/control remains unproved.
Chenele Dixon provides a concrete case for the new alignment audit because policy divergence, party criticism, and election-reform advocacy are all documented independently. The Idaho Republican State Central Committee's 2023 Resolution 2023-43 named Dixon in a vote of no confidence over her vote against overriding Gov. Brad Little's veto of HB 314 and said the named lawmakers had voted in conflict with the Republican platform. Dixon's 2024 campaign/public…
Read note and sources →Connection research · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: ISSUE-LEVEL PATTERN VERIFIED WITH COUNTEREVIDENCE: several IDI-PAC endorsees voted against E-Verify, while Furniss/Guthrie voted for it. Control or single-issue endorsement motive is not established.
The dairy/immigration branch now has a more concrete candidate-vote comparison. Idaho Dairymen's Association publicly opposed E-Verify legislation absent major changes/guest-worker reform and its Spring 2026 PAC materials endorsed a slate that included Ben Fuhriman, Rick Cheatum, Dan Garner, Lori McCann, Stephanie Mickelsen, Rod Furniss and Jim Guthrie. On the House vote for SB 1247, an Idaho E-Verify Act, Fuhriman, Cheatum, Garner, McCann and Mickelsen vo…
Read note and sources →Connection research · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: Primary House disclosure verifies consulting for Sixteen Thirty, New Venture and WFF; FEC-derived records verify later Way Back candidate support. Causation/control not established.
A primary U.S. House financial disclosure provides a concrete example of personnel overlap across the same national funding architecture now being traced into Idaho. Nebraska congressional candidate Denise Powell's Aug. 13, 2025 candidate financial disclosure lists compensation in excess of $5,000 from each of Sixteen Thirty Fund, New Venture Fund and Western Futures Fund for consulting, along with multiple Nebraska advocacy/campaign clients. The disclosur…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: COUNTEREVIDENCE / IDENTITY CAUTION: IRS-derived data verify Toolbox EIN 88-3259830 as a distinct Arlington 527 with Halfon/Gilbert officers. Nunnelly/Dupré family-office affiliation is not yet established.
A source-conflict check materially narrows how the Way Back→Toolbox branch should be described. Inside Elections' August 2026 investigation characterizes a Way Back donor called 'Toolbox' as the family foundation of former Bain Capital managing director Mark Nunnelly and Denise Dupré. However, the IRS Form 8872-derived organization actually documented in the IdahoCabal record as a major Way Back funder is Toolbox, EIN 88-3259830, an Arlington, Virginia Sec…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: IRS-DERIVED/PRIMARY TIMING CORRECTION: Article IV closed in 2025; $170K Article IV→DPI is primary-verified for FY2024. Any additional 2025 payment remains unverified; do not label Article IV as fresh 2026 funding without dated state rows.
Article IV (EIN 86-2820532) appears to have completed a wind-down/termination in 2025, which materially changes how its appearance in 2026 Idaho PAC coverage should be interpreted. ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer's IRS-derived FY2025 record shows Article IV filed a Form 990-EZ on Jan. 27, 2026 reporting $0 revenue, $1,728,273 in expenses and $0 year-end net assets; the filing also contains Schedule N, the IRS schedule used for liquidation, termination, disso…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: MESSAGING MECHANISM VERIFIED: CAP reduces whole-budget votes to issue labels. Accuracy/motive depends on full context; no deception, coordination, or Article IV direction is established.
The retrospective audit identifies a concrete perception-framing mechanism in Conservative Accountability Project's public messaging. CAP's pages for Brian Lenney, Tammy Nichols, Glenneda Zuiderveld and Dan Foreman use identical language saying each voted against law enforcement, against helping veterans and to weaken prisons, with footnotes to H222, H351 and S1150. The underlying measures were appropriations bills. H222 was a FY2023 supplemental appropria…
Read note and sources →Connection research · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: PRIMARY IRS VERIFIED: Sixteen Thirty's FY2024 general grant-monitoring procedure, $2.75M WFF grant and Arabella administrative-services role are documented. Specific WFF grant terms and downstream Idaho direction remain unresolved.
Sixteen Thirty Fund's FY2024 Form 990 materially clarifies the upstream Sixteen Thirty→Western Futures relationship. Schedule I says Sixteen Thirty generally requires a written grant application stating the proposed use of funds, reviews and evaluates the application before issuing a grant, and requires interim and final reporting to confirm funds were used for the specified purpose. The same 2024 filing reports a $2,750,000 grant to Western Futures Fund f…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: MIXED-BENEFIT CASE: employer-directed workforce goals and taxpayer funding are explicit, while current state data show measurable student enrollment/retention benefits. Net distributional effect needs quantification.
Idaho LAUNCH is a useful counterbalance to the data-center tax case because it shows that business-aligned public spending can create both concentrated employer benefits and documented broad benefits. Governor Little's 2023 materials explicitly framed LAUNCH as a response to employers' skilled-worker shortage: grants cover 80% of approved education/training costs up to $8,000 for Idaho high-school graduates pursuing in-demand careers, with roughly $75M ava…
Read note and sources →Connection research · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: IRS/Schedule I VERIFIED: Article IV→Votes Idaho $75K across 2022–23; Article IV→Idahoans for Open Primaries $2.22M in 2024; Article IV→Conservative Accountability Project $25K in 2024. Control, coordination and upstream earmarking not established.
Article IV's reported Schedule I grant history adds a previously unrecorded direct Idaho lane. Its filings report two $37,500 general-support grants to Votes Idaho Company in 2022 and 2023 ($75,000 total), followed in 2024 by $2,220,000 to Idahoans for Open Primaries and $25,000 to Boise-based Conservative Accountability Project. An IRS-derived complete Article IV grant aggregation for 2021–2024 identifies these three Boise recipients as its Idaho portfoli…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: COUNTEREVIDENCE UPGRADED: Mickelsen was network-supported and HB911 ratepayer protections became law. This cuts against broad candidate-level motive/interest generalizations.
Rep. Stephanie Mickelsen is a useful issue-specific counterexample to any attempt to classify the entire Defend/Dairy-supported candidate cluster as uniformly favoring concentrated business interests. Mickelsen voted against HB 93 and was later supported in the 2026 Republican primary by Defend and Protect Idaho, Idaho Dairy Industry PAC and Hometown Heroes, placing her inside the candidate cluster under alignment review. In February 2026 she introduced a …
Read note and sources →Connection research · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: Primary subsets + current reporting verified. Later Contours→WFF increment, full Way Back Montana allocation and common-control questions remain unresolved; no same-dollar tracing or centralized command established.
Current 2026 reporting and primary records extend the Contours→Western Futures→Way Back architecture beyond Idaho into a multistate political-support network, while still falling short of proving common legal control. Inside Elections' August 2026 investigation, based on tax and FEC records, reports that super PAC efforts supporting independent Montana Senate candidate Seth Bodnar received aggregate funding across the relevant PACs from Contours ($2.6M), W…
Read note and sources →Connection research · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: Official APOC verifies Nunnelly and Dupré each gave Unite America $125K in 2024; current reporting documents Carroll's large Unite America giving and Unite America's Idaho role. Idaho earmarking or donor control is not established.
A donor-level crossline around Unite America can now be documented without relying on the unresolved 'Toolbox' identity claim. An official Alaska Public Offices Commission disclosure filed June 10, 2026 by Unite America PAC identifies Mark Nunnelly and Denise Dupré as direct true-source donors of $125,000 each on June 25, 2024. The same filing provides a long donor list supporting Unite America's Alaska spending. Separately, current Montana reporting based…
Read note and sources →Connection research · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: CANDIDATE SUPPORT + COMMITTEE AUTHORITY + BILL OUTCOMES VERIFIED. Industry direction or quid pro quo is not established; Guthrie's immigration record is mixed.
Sen. Jim Guthrie is now a strong case study for the new alignment audit because candidate support, industry interest, platform policy and institutional authority all intersect in one race. Idaho Education News reported that Idaho Prosperity Fund spent $72,392 supporting Guthrie in the 2026 District 28 Republican primary; Idaho Liberty PAC spent another $72,771 supporting him, while Defend and Protect Idaho and other PACs also backed him. Idaho Capital Sun …
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: PRIMARY STRATEGY VERIFIED: IDI-PAC explicitly targets decisive GOP primaries to advance dairy interests, oppose contrary candidates, and develop industry leadership. Corruption/control not established.
Primary Idaho Dairymen's Association material makes the PAC's strategy unusually explicit and substantially sharpens this branch. In its Q1 2022 Idaho Dairy Focus, IDA explained that because Idaho is dominated by the Republican Party, the May Republican primary is the decisive election in most legislative districts; it noted that many November races are effectively uncontested. The same publication says IDI-PAC was formed by dairy producers, processors and…
Read note and sources →Connection research · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: IRS/campaign-finance/reporting crossline verified at organization and role level; same-person CAP↔Idaho Liberty↔GS identity strongly corroborated but underlying Idaho registrations should still be captured directly. No Article IV→Idaho Liberty money flow or coordination established.
A new crossline connects Article IV's Idaho grantmaking to the previously tracked Little/Idaho Victory/Idaho Liberty political network through personnel rather than a proven money transfer between the two systems. Conservative Accountability Project Inc. (CAP), Boise, reports Robert Jones as president, Billie Jean Siddoway as treasurer and Guy Hurlbutt as secretary. Article IV reported a $25,000 general-support grant to CAP in FY2024; CAP reported $38,000 …
Read note and sources →Connection research · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: STRONG ISSUE-LEVEL ALIGNMENT FINDING: dairy economic interest, major PAC support, Guthrie committee action, and GOP E-Verify/school-choice positions are independently documented. Donor causation, coordination and quid pro quo are not established.
A retrospective alignment audit of Sen. Jim Guthrie identifies a concrete policy-interest convergence without proving quid pro quo. Idaho Dairymen's Association states that about 90% of on-dairy jobs are filled by foreign-born labor and its member-approved immigration policy supports legal status for existing agricultural workers, year-round agricultural visa access, and government—not employers—bearing ultimate status-verification responsibility. In a Feb…
Read note and sources →Connection research · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: Official/current records verify Kreizenbeck's SEP Idaho policy role, Judicial Council membership and 2024 GOP precinct election. Little appointment is contemporaneously reported; no cross-role coordination or funder influence established.
Jason B. Kreizenbeck, identified by Secure Elections Project as its Idaho Legislative & Policy Team member through Lobby Idaho, also occupies multiple formal Idaho political/institutional roles. The Idaho Judicial Council's official bio says Kreizenbeck was appointed to the Council on July 1, 2023. The Council states that its non-attorney public members are appointed by the Governor and subject to Senate approval; current state records list Kreizenbeck as …
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: IPF endorsement + McCann votes + GOP E-Verify policy are documented. IACI/IPF motive for endorsing McCann remains unproved.
A concrete issue-level alignment case appears in Idaho Prosperity Fund's 2026 support for Lori McCann. Contemporary reporting identifies McCann as an IPF-endorsed candidate in the District 6 Senate primary. Separately, Idaho Capital Sun reports that, while serving in the House, McCann voted against HB 700 (prohibiting unlawful employment of unauthorized workers) and HB 704 (mandatory E-Verify). The Idaho Republican State Central Committee's accepted 2025 R…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: COUNTEREVIDENCE VERIFIED: documented GOP organizational participation coexists with an issue-level platform disagreement. Bad-faith motive cannot be inferred from divergence alone.
The alignment audit should preserve counterevidence alongside policy divergence. Rep. Ben Fuhriman is a useful example. He opposed 2025 HB 93, a parental-choice tax-credit policy consistent with the Idaho GOP platform's stated support for money following students and private/parochial options; Defend and Protect Idaho and the Idaho Dairy Industry PAC later supported him in the 2026 Republican primary. However, separate Idaho GOP records show Fuhriman parti…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: PRIMARY AGREEMENT VERIFIED: representative Contours 527 grant was recipient-solicited, general support, not activity-earmarked, and expressly left subsequent decisions to the recipient. Political purpose exists; operational direction is not shown.
The representative Contours→Fight For Us PAC 527 grant agreement adds important counterevidence against overstating donor control. The July 8, 2025 letter says Contours' $50,000 grant was in response to Fight For Us PAC's June 2025 solicitation and was intended to assist the PAC with electoral advocacy for independent candidates for public office. The letter expressly describes the donation as a general-support grant not earmarked or targeted to a specific…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: OFFICIAL DESCRIPTION VERIFIED. Structural effect: party primaries abolished; all voters choose top four; RCV only in general. Republican-exclusive nomination gatekeeping would end. Sponsor/funder motive remains unproven without additional evidence.
For influence analysis, Idaho's 2024 Proposition 1 should be described precisely. The official Attorney General/Secretary of State summary states the measure would abolish Idaho's party primaries, place all candidates for covered offices on one top-four primary ballot, permit all voters to vote among all candidates regardless of party affiliation, and advance the four highest vote-getters to the general election. Candidates could list an affiliation but wo…
Read note and sources →Connection research · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: TARGET/FUNDING OVERLAP VERIFIED; shared Robert Jones identity is strongly corroborated but still needs direct primary closure. No Article IV→Liberty flow or coordination established.
A new retrospective crossline links two legally separate Idaho political-influence lanes at the level of targets and leadership names. Article IV's FY2024 grant records show a $25,000 general-support grant to Boise-based Conservative Accountability Project (CAP). CAP's FY2024 filing reports only $38,000 in total revenue and identifies Robert Jones as president. CAP's own issue-advocacy pages attack Brian Lenney, Tammy Nichols, Glenneda Zuiderveld and Dan F…
Read note and sources →Connection research · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: PRIMARY/OFFICIAL + CAMPAIGN-FINANCE REPORTING VERIFIED cross-cycle candidate-selection pattern. Directional motive (e.g. shifting GOP policy left/right) remains unproved and must be tested using candidate records and donor/recipient strategy evidence.
Applying the new influence/use methodology reveals a concrete cross-cycle pattern around Way Back PAC that should be tested further rather than treated as ideological proof. In 2024, campaign-finance reporting based on Idaho Secretary of State records identified Way Back PAC as a $250,000 donor to Idahoans for Open Primaries. Idaho's official ballot summary states Proposition 1 would have abolished party primaries, replaced them with a single top-four prim…
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