Browse sourced findings, connection research, and open questions. Each entry retains the status and qualifications recorded with the research. A connection research note is not automatically a verified network-map relationship.
Research finding · 2026-09-17
Recorded status: verified primary-source finding; beneficial owner/operator remains unresolved
The live Idaho Sunshine expenditure API returns six itemized payments to the payee name “Esto Perpetua Group” at PO Box 2535, Boise, ID 83701: Right 2 Learn ($15,000 on 5/20/2024); Defend and Protect Idaho ($50,000 and $15,427 on 5/20/2024, plus $25,000 on 8/2/2024); Hometown Heroes ($22,396.57 on 8/2/2024); and Accountable Idaho ($15,000 on 1/2/2025). Total identified here: $142,823.57. The same query also returns payments to a separately named payee, “Es…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-17
Recorded status: Transaction detail verified; invoice, actual work and approving person unresolved
Opened the $6,272.72 Foreman allocation in Defend's Independent Expenditures tab. Detail confirms a $69,000 Redbird Strategies company expenditure dated May 8, with both distribution Start Date and End Date May 8, purpose Z—Preparation & Production of Advertising. Eleven named candidates are all opposed: Barbara Ehardt, Daniel David Foreman, Scott Herndon, Clint Hostetler, Josh Keyser, Joshua Luke Kohl, David James Leavitt, Elaine Price, Julianne Young, Ch…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: COUNTEREVIDENCE / IDENTITY CAUTION: IRS-derived data verify Toolbox EIN 88-3259830 as a distinct Arlington 527 with Halfon/Gilbert officers. Nunnelly/Dupré family-office affiliation is not yet established.
A source-conflict check materially narrows how the Way Back→Toolbox branch should be described. Inside Elections' August 2026 investigation characterizes a Way Back donor called 'Toolbox' as the family foundation of former Bain Capital managing director Mark Nunnelly and Denise Dupré. However, the IRS Form 8872-derived organization actually documented in the IdahoCabal record as a major Way Back funder is Toolbox, EIN 88-3259830, an Arlington, Virginia Sec…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: IRS-DERIVED/PRIMARY TIMING CORRECTION: Article IV closed in 2025; $170K Article IV→DPI is primary-verified for FY2024. Any additional 2025 payment remains unverified; do not label Article IV as fresh 2026 funding without dated state rows.
Article IV (EIN 86-2820532) appears to have completed a wind-down/termination in 2025, which materially changes how its appearance in 2026 Idaho PAC coverage should be interpreted. ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer's IRS-derived FY2025 record shows Article IV filed a Form 990-EZ on Jan. 27, 2026 reporting $0 revenue, $1,728,273 in expenses and $0 year-end net assets; the filing also contains Schedule N, the IRS schedule used for liquidation, termination, disso…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: MESSAGING MECHANISM VERIFIED: CAP reduces whole-budget votes to issue labels. Accuracy/motive depends on full context; no deception, coordination, or Article IV direction is established.
The retrospective audit identifies a concrete perception-framing mechanism in Conservative Accountability Project's public messaging. CAP's pages for Brian Lenney, Tammy Nichols, Glenneda Zuiderveld and Dan Foreman use identical language saying each voted against law enforcement, against helping veterans and to weaken prisons, with footnotes to H222, H351 and S1150. The underlying measures were appropriations bills. H222 was a FY2023 supplemental appropria…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: MIXED-BENEFIT CASE: employer-directed workforce goals and taxpayer funding are explicit, while current state data show measurable student enrollment/retention benefits. Net distributional effect needs quantification.
Idaho LAUNCH is a useful counterbalance to the data-center tax case because it shows that business-aligned public spending can create both concentrated employer benefits and documented broad benefits. Governor Little's 2023 materials explicitly framed LAUNCH as a response to employers' skilled-worker shortage: grants cover 80% of approved education/training costs up to $8,000 for Idaho high-school graduates pursuing in-demand careers, with roughly $75M ava…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: COUNTEREVIDENCE UPGRADED: Mickelsen was network-supported and HB911 ratepayer protections became law. This cuts against broad candidate-level motive/interest generalizations.
Rep. Stephanie Mickelsen is a useful issue-specific counterexample to any attempt to classify the entire Defend/Dairy-supported candidate cluster as uniformly favoring concentrated business interests. Mickelsen voted against HB 93 and was later supported in the 2026 Republican primary by Defend and Protect Idaho, Idaho Dairy Industry PAC and Hometown Heroes, placing her inside the candidate cluster under alignment review. In February 2026 she introduced a …
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: PRIMARY STRATEGY VERIFIED: IDI-PAC explicitly targets decisive GOP primaries to advance dairy interests, oppose contrary candidates, and develop industry leadership. Corruption/control not established.
Primary Idaho Dairymen's Association material makes the PAC's strategy unusually explicit and substantially sharpens this branch. In its Q1 2022 Idaho Dairy Focus, IDA explained that because Idaho is dominated by the Republican Party, the May Republican primary is the decisive election in most legislative districts; it noted that many November races are effectively uncontested. The same publication says IDI-PAC was formed by dairy producers, processors and…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: IPF endorsement + McCann votes + GOP E-Verify policy are documented. IACI/IPF motive for endorsing McCann remains unproved.
A concrete issue-level alignment case appears in Idaho Prosperity Fund's 2026 support for Lori McCann. Contemporary reporting identifies McCann as an IPF-endorsed candidate in the District 6 Senate primary. Separately, Idaho Capital Sun reports that, while serving in the House, McCann voted against HB 700 (prohibiting unlawful employment of unauthorized workers) and HB 704 (mandatory E-Verify). The Idaho Republican State Central Committee's accepted 2025 R…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: COUNTEREVIDENCE VERIFIED: documented GOP organizational participation coexists with an issue-level platform disagreement. Bad-faith motive cannot be inferred from divergence alone.
The alignment audit should preserve counterevidence alongside policy divergence. Rep. Ben Fuhriman is a useful example. He opposed 2025 HB 93, a parental-choice tax-credit policy consistent with the Idaho GOP platform's stated support for money following students and private/parochial options; Defend and Protect Idaho and the Idaho Dairy Industry PAC later supported him in the 2026 Republican primary. However, separate Idaho GOP records show Fuhriman parti…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: PRIMARY AGREEMENT VERIFIED: representative Contours 527 grant was recipient-solicited, general support, not activity-earmarked, and expressly left subsequent decisions to the recipient. Political purpose exists; operational direction is not shown.
The representative Contours→Fight For Us PAC 527 grant agreement adds important counterevidence against overstating donor control. The July 8, 2025 letter says Contours' $50,000 grant was in response to Fight For Us PAC's June 2025 solicitation and was intended to assist the PAC with electoral advocacy for independent candidates for public office. The letter expressly describes the donation as a general-support grant not earmarked or targeted to a specific…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: OFFICIAL DESCRIPTION VERIFIED. Structural effect: party primaries abolished; all voters choose top four; RCV only in general. Republican-exclusive nomination gatekeeping would end. Sponsor/funder motive remains unproven without additional evidence.
For influence analysis, Idaho's 2024 Proposition 1 should be described precisely. The official Attorney General/Secretary of State summary states the measure would abolish Idaho's party primaries, place all candidates for covered offices on one top-four primary ballot, permit all voters to vote among all candidates regardless of party affiliation, and advance the four highest vote-getters to the general election. Candidates could list an affiliation but wo…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: SOURCED FIRST-PASS ALIGNMENT AUDIT: several prior branches show direct issue-level alignment/divergence with current party platforms; dairy/labor is presently better classified as economic-interest lobbying. No overall ideological ranking, bad-faith motive or coordinated-control conclusion.
First retrospective alignment pass under the standing methodology shows several issue-specific patterns that are stronger than generic party labels. (1) Election structure: the 2024 Idahoans for Open Primaries/Prop 1 branch, funded heavily by Article IV, Unite America and Way Back PAC, sought to abolish party primaries and replace them with a top-four primary plus ranked-choice general election. That structure directly conflicts with the current 2026 Idaho…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: PRIMARY IACI MATERIAL VERIFIED: business lobbying, coordinated advocacy, PAC candidate support and industry-policy work are documented; broader public-interest effects remain issue-specific.
IACI is a high-value node for the IdahoCabal influence audit because its own materials openly define the organization as Idaho's most effective business lobby and say it represents roughly 300 employers seeking to shape state policy. Its current board includes government/public-affairs, legal, tax, corporate-affairs and executive representatives from major employers and industries including utilities, health systems and insurers, banks, mining, agriculture…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: PRIMARY IRS RESPONSE VERIFIED: Contours classifies 527 grants as indirect political-campaign activity and describes candidate/public-official alignment as a selection criterion. No Idaho-specific direction established.
Contours' Sept. 4, 2025 IRS response provides unusually direct primary-source language about how it selects and accounts for grants to political organizations. Contours states that it makes two grant types: grants to 501(c)(4) social-welfare organizations and grants to Section 527 political organizations. It says the 527 grants are intended to constitute indirect political campaign activity rather than social-welfare spending. For 527 grants, Contours says…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: Primary/official records verify SEP funding and Kansas anti-RCV testimony; previously documented Idaho records verify Way Back support for the Prop 1 RCV campaign. This is evidence against assuming uniform downstream policy control from shared funding alone.
A useful counterexample has emerged that constrains any claim that Sixteen Thirty Fund or Western Futures Fund imposes one uniform election-policy line on downstream organizations. Secure Elections Project received $2.205M from Sixteen Thirty across 2022–2024 and $50,000 from Western Futures in FY2024. In February 2025, Secure Elections Project submitted proponent testimony in Kansas for SB 6, legislation prohibiting ranked-choice voting. By contrast, in I…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: HISTORICAL MECHANISM VERIFIED: IACI sought larger repeal; final bipartisan compromise cut business taxes ~$20M with state sales-tax backfill. Capture/abuse is not established.
A historical IACI tax campaign provides a clean example of the concentrated-benefit-versus-cost-shift framework, although the final policy was a broad compromise rather than IACI's original proposal. In 2013 IACI pushed a phased full repeal of Idaho's business personal property tax, which applies to business equipment/furnishings. Contemporary reporting put IACI's full-repeal proposal at roughly $120 million; public schools alone received an estimated $38.…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: SOURCED USE/EFFECT BASELINE: candidate-selection, ballot-reform, legislative-pressure and campaign-infrastructure channels are documented. Ideological direction varies by branch; no claim of centralized control or sole causation.
The research should now distinguish money-flow from demonstrated use/effect. Current public records support at least four separate Idaho influence channels. (1) Republican primary candidate selection: Defend and Protect Idaho, whose largest 2026 donor was Way Back PAC at $350,000, spent more than $752,800 supporting 23 Republican primary candidates and opposing 14; Idaho Capital Sun and Idaho Education News describe the supported side primarily as mainstre…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-16
Recorded status: HIGH-CONFIDENCE FILING RECONSTRUCTION: Q2 exact counts/totals prove Way Back’s $160K GTW payee is non-federal, excluding federal C00915595. Earlier $75K likewise reconciles as non-federal. Treat these as South Dakota/state GTW pending raw address/state-row confirmation.
Way Back PAC's June 4–30, 2026 Q2 filing materially resolves the same-name Government That Works identity problem preserved in sequence 528. The filing reports exactly one $750,000 'Contribution to Committee - Non-Contribution Account' transaction and eight 'Contribution to Non-Federal Committee - Non-Contribution Account' transactions totaling $605,000. Its payee table reconciles exactly: Montana Freedom PAC is the sole $750,000 federal-committee payment;…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-15
Recorded status: Verified organizational operating model plus multiple legal-entity funding/campaign relationships; specific Idaho strategic guidance and cross-entity earmarking remain unproved.
Unite America’s own current strategy describes a deliberately integrated investment model spanning 501(c)(3), 501(c)(4), and PAC giving. It says Unite America invests in state campaigns, national partners and infrastructure; builds political/public/ecosystem power; funds and connects partners; advises grantees on strategies/campaigns/programs; makes network connections; and provides shared messaging, polling and other infrastructure. Separate records now s…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-15
Recorded status: Verified from IRS-derived grant records; donor-advised-fund underlying donors may remain undisclosed.
IRS-derived records covering 2018-2025 identify Hopewell Fund as receiving about $729.7 million across 975 grants from 396 funders. The largest identified institutional sources include Fidelity Investments Charitable Gift Fund at approximately $332.9 million, Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation about $73.8 million, Foundation to Promote Open Society about $28.3 million, Pivotal Philanthropies Foundation about $20.4 million, and Silicon Valley Community Found…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-15
Recorded status: Verified alumni governance/funding architecture. Clinton administration/federal funding is NOT established; Berger grant terms prohibit election use.
Two independent Clinton-administration alumni routes converge on Sixteen Thirty Fund, which later made direct Idaho grants. First, the National Democratic Institute biography of Arabella Advisors founder Eric Kessler states that he served as a White House appointee helping manage conservation issues during the Clinton administration and serves on the board of the 1630 Fund. Sixteen Thirty's 2020 filing identifies Arabella as a 35%-controlled entity of boar…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-15
Recorded status: Verified event-level relationship and targeted financial negative check. No public direct payment/grant/contribution located; private or unindexed transactions cannot be excluded.
A targeted search for direct financial transactions between Reclaim Idaho/Reclaim Idaho Fund and Idaho Solutions Inc./Idaho Solutions Foundation did not locate a public grant, contribution, payment, invoice, sponsorship transfer, or campaign-finance transaction between the entities. Exact-name searches for Idaho Solutions + Reclaim Idaho with payment/contribution/donation/grant terminology repeatedly surfaced the documented event relationships instead: (1)…
Read note and sources →Research finding · 2026-09-15
Recorded status: Strong secondary transaction evidence from current Idaho campaign-finance aggregation plus verified V4IV public activity; primary Sunshine transaction row still pending.
Current 2026 Transparency USA aggregation for Veterans for Idaho Voters Inc. reports $78,457 total contributions and attributes $75,000 to Idahoans for Open Primaries, approximately 95.6% of reported cycle contributions. The same contributor table lists Cindy Wilson, separately documented as MWEG Idaho State Director and an Idaho Solutions board member, as a $40 individual contributor. V4IV’s current website says the organization now recruits/supports vete…
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